The stock market is getting choppier, but JPMorgan thinks the upward trend in equities is still in place. For now. Technical strategist Jason Hunter highlighted the 50-day moving average on the S & P 500 as the key level for the benchmark to hold. According to FactSet, the S & P 500’s 50-day sits at 6,551.34. The index closed at 6,644.31 on Tuesday but tested the short-term average, hitting an intraday low of 6,555.07 in a choppy trading session. On Tuesday, the S & P successfully retested last Friday’s low of 6,551, CNBC columnist Michael Santoli has noted. “The bull trend remains intact,” JPMorgan’s Hunter wrote. “However, we believe that closes below would likely lead to a sharp increase in realized volatility and leave the index vulnerable to a pullback to 6300 and potentially 6150-6200 medium-term support zones.” The S & P 500 would have to fall 5.2% from Tuesday’s close to reach 6,300. A move to 6,150 would entail a 7.4% slide. The benchmark index hasn’t closed below its 50-day moving average since the tariff-induced April swoon that nearly ended the bull market (at one point in April, the S & P 500 was about 20% below its then record high). In the six months since, investors continued buying the dip — powering the S & P 500 to fresh all-time highs multiple times. That said, the market may be overdue for a significant test. BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky noted earlier this week that the benchmark has gone more than 100 trading days without touching its 50-day moving average. He also said on Tuesday that moves under the surface suggest a pronounced decline is coming. “Factor unwinds continue with AI, low-quality, highly-shorted, and [high] volatility some of the leading factors YTD. Meanwhile, quality remains a laggard. That in and of itself isn’t an issue, but the extreme nature of these moves suggest reversion is likely,” he said. ( Learn the best 2026 strategies from inside the NYSE with Josh Brown and others at CNBC PRO Live. Tickets and info here . )
