Business
In 2025 so far, 40% of VC exit value stems from AI, according to PitchBook
It’s all happening in AI (and, yes, that’s a Simon and Garfunkel reference).
And if that’s an exaggeration, it barely feels like one: In Q3, AI amounted to 39.5% of deal count, a record, according to PitchBook. AI is sending U.S. dealmaking trends up, as PitchBook estimates that deal count is up about 8% this year, marking the third most active year of the last decade. And when it comes to deal value, the numbers are even more dominant: By Q3 2025, 64.3% of deal value in the U.S. has tracked to AI. Now, the definition of “AI” is pretty broad, but a now undeniable reality has taken hold.
“I think AI has basically become the foundation of VC,” said Kyle Stanford, PitchBook director of U.S. venture research, via email. “It provides a wholly new way for companies to solve challenges, and it is being integrated into every part of the economy. It is still the easy and fast deployment that can drive hyper scaling that VC has looked to for outsized returns. As mentioned above, it’s not a singular technology or subset of companies within a broader industry; it is becoming part of everything.”
This follows through to the much-discussed and long-suffering VC exit environment: In 2025 so far, 40% of the exit deal value also traces back to AI, among them CoreWeave’s IPO. PitchBook says 2025 has seen a record 317 AI exits. But the environment for IPOs and M&A remains dicey, according to PitchBook’s Stanford.
“Exit value is interesting because you have a few strong IPOs, and then quite a few IPOs that maybe got higher billing for the year because of the overall lack of exits,” he told Fortune. “I don’t think many share my view on the IPO market, but I question its real strength given the relatively small pipeline…Many of the IPOs have been crypto firms or companies that might be considered atypical for the overall VC-backed inventory. I do think that the extended period staying private (over the past three years) will lead to some very strong companies listing next year.”
Whether such an over-reliance on AI is healthy for the VC industry is an open question. And of course, intertwined in that question is the ongoing debate du jour: Are we in a bubble? If we are, what does that even mean?
Stanford says he believes the conversation around a bubble should be nuanced. “This hype cycle, or bubble, might drive more tail events,” he said. “The multiples being given to some companies are very high, which might be concerning, but if this is truly the technological shift it is being billed as, then companies shouldn’t be priced in a normal way.”
A thought to this end from Brent Hill, managing partner at Origin Ventures, which just raised a $140 million sixth fund: “The U.S. economy has gone through five major economic eras: agrarian, industrial, information, digital—and now, of course, we’re living in the fifth and maybe most consequential with the artificial intelligence economy.” This ongoing phase will be massive, Hill reckons, noting that “we think that over the next ten years, we’ll see a dramatic impact in the productivity of the U.S. economy that will add somewhere between $2 trillion and $4 trillion to domestic GDP.”
There remains, of course, the question of how unprecedented VC’s all-in reliance on AI really is. We see lots of corollaries to the dotcom bubble, perhaps—but venture was a far smaller, less mature industry then. Karen Page, general partner at B Capital, thinks it’s worth considering the cloud boom.
“Cloud was a fundamental shift—a different way to own your data, to run your data,” she said. “But even so, AI is a different way to access your data. So, this is still leaps and bounds more of a transition.”
There was always, during cloud hype, a sense that brakes were getting pumped. Not so in AI: “There is no fear around AI,” Page said. “There is, instead of fear, a desire to jump in and move fast. So, it’s very different.”
All in all, she and I ultimately settled on the word “unprecedented.”
See you tomorrow,
Allie Garfinkle
X: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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Venture Deals
– Base Power, an Austin, Texas-based energy provider, raised $1 billion in Series C funding. Addition led the round and was joined by Trust Ventures, Valor Equity Partners, Thrive Capital, and others.
– Phagos, a Suresnes, France-based developer of a sustainable alternative to antibiotics, raised $30 million in Series A funding from CapAgro, Hoxton Ventures, CapHorn, Demeter, and others.
– Coinflow, a Chicago, Ill.-based global payments platform, raised $25 million in Series A funding. Pantera Capital led the round and was joined by CMT Digital, Coinbase Ventures, and others.
– Quilter, a Los Angeles, Calif.-based company using AI to build an autonomous PCB layout, raised $25 million in Series B funding. Index Ventures led the round.
– Glue, a San Francisco-based agentic team chat platform, raised $20 million in Series A funding. Abstract Ventures led the round and was joined by Chapter One, Goldcrest Capital, and Craft Ventures.
– Realm.Security, a Boston, Mass.-based security data pipeline, raised $15 million in Series A funding. Jump Capital led the round and was joined by Glasswing Ventures and Accomplice.
– Attuned Intelligence, an Orlando, Fla.-based developer of AI-powered call center agents for hospitals, raised $13 million in seed funding. Radical Ventures and Threshold Ventures led the round.
– AiPrise, a San Francisco-based operating system for global compliance, raised $12.5 million in Series A funding. Headline led the round and was joined by Sixthirty and Correlation.
– Everyset, a Los Angeles, Calif.-based background performer platform for film and television, raised $9 million in funding. Crosslink Capital and Haven Ventures led the round.
– Cyberwave, a Milan, Italy-based company developing an operating layer between AI agents and real-world machines, raised €7 million ($8.1 million) in funding. United Ventures led the round and was joined by The TechShop and others.
– Asterix Food, a Tel Aviv, Israel-based developer of technology using plant cells to produce animal proteins. CPT Capital led the round and was joined by Grok Ventures, ReGen Ventures, and SOSV.
– Dragonfly, a London, U.K.-based software discovery platform, raised $3.5 million in pre-seed funding. Episode 1 led the round and was joined by Dreamcraft, Portfolio Ventures, and angel investors.
– OraLiva, a New York City-based developer of AI-assisted oral cancer detection technology, raised $2 million in seed funding. Dr. Preetpal Sidhu led the round and was joined by DCVC, RTP Angel Fund, and the NYU Innovation Venture Fund.
Private Equity
– Mainsail Partners invested $36 million in Flyntlok, an Anchorage, Alaska-based heavy equipment dealer management system.
– Brenton Point Capital Partners acquired a majority stake in Bobcat of Connecticut, an East Hartford, Conn.-based chain of Bobcat and other industrial equipment dealerships. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– Integrity Landscape Corporation, a portfolio company of Seacoast Capital, acquired Serpico Landscaping, a Hayward, Calif.-based exterior landscaping company. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– Mountaingate Capital acquired a majority stake in Walker Sands, a Chicago, Ill.-based business-to-business growth services agency. Financial terms were not disclosed.
– Wall Street Prep, a portfolio company of The Riverside Company, acquired Financial Edge, a London, U.K.-based provider of new hire training for financial institutions, and Euromoney Learning, a London, U.K.-based catalog of courses for mid-career finance professionals. Financial terms were not disclosed.
People
– Plural, a London, U.K.-based venture capital firm, hired Pierre-Dimitri Gore-Coty as partner. He formerly served as SVP of Delivery at Uber.
– Rockbridge Growth Equity, a Detroit, Mich.-based private equity firm, hired Tony Pulice as partner. He was previously with Huron Capital Partners.
