The S & P 500 has seen solid gains so far in 2025, and it’s likely the benchmark index will only advance further the remainder of the year, if history is any guide. According to Bank of America, in every instance it examined when the S & P 500 had risen at least 10% through the end of September, the index continued to move higher in all but one. The only time the S & P 500 didn’t follow form was in 2012, when the U.S. faced a fiscal cliff and economies overseas looked set to slow, and the benchmark stock index dipped 1% in the final three months of the year after rising 15% in the first nine. The trend may be poised to repeat in 2025, with the S & P 500 jumping 14% through September this year, meaning momentum may be hard to stop. In fact, it might already be playing out, as the index hit a new all-time intraday high on Friday , the third trading day of the fourth quarter. Bank of America isn’t alone in feeling optimistic about the trajectory of stocks. Earlier this week, Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors said he expects the S & P 500 to hit at least 7,000 by December , a target that implies more than 4% upside from Thursday’s close. Lee, the head of research at Fundstrat, doesn’t think the current shutdown of the U.S. government will threaten further gains, as the stoppages have typically had little effect on stocks . The delay of economic data releases , such as the scheduled release Friday of the September nonfarm payrolls report, is a “sidebar issue.” Still, the past history of shutdowns not affecting stocks much might not be true this year, if the lapse in federal funding drags on longer than the roughly two weeks that investors expect. Moreover, the market faces another risk if euphoria over high stock prices spreads and investors rush into stocks too quickly, leaving few left to push up shares further. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, year-to-date With Friday’s move, the S & P 500 has now risen nearly 15% year to date after back-to-back gains of more than 20% each in 2023 and 2024. ( Learn the best 2026 strategies from inside the NYSE with Josh Brown and others at CNBC PRO Live. Tickets and info here . )
